Asian Stocks climbed for sixth week as Recession Concern Reduces

Asian Stock rally for sixth week, the highest line of gains in more than two years, on rising confidence the worst of the global financial crisis is over.

China Cosco Holdings Co., the world’s biggest operator of dry-bulk ships, surged 21% on increasing Chinese shipping rates and exports. PT Bumi Resources, Asia’s biggest exporter of power-station coal increased 21% in Jakarta. JFE Holdings Inc., Japan’s second-largest steel maker, rose 22% on speculation it would not make big price cuts and as the government revealed a record stimulus package.

This week the MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 2.0% to 89.69, completing the highest stretch of gains since December 2006. Asian market has climbed 27% since the MSCI benchmark fell down to a six-year low on March 9.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 0.6%. South Korea’s Kospi index fall down 0.5% as brokerages cut recommendation on financial companies. Thailand’s SET Index increased 0.6% in a week reduced by New Year holidays. The Thai government called a state of emergency following collides between protestors in Bangkok and security forces.

MSCI’s Asian Index plummet by a record 43% last year as the credit crunch tipped the world’s biggest economies into financial crisis, forcing companies to cut jobs among falling profits.

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A New World Order in the Making

The world leaders meet at the G20 Summit in London with the motto of Stability Growth and Jobs has ended marking a turning point in the world history. Overall, there have been mixed responses regarding the success of the Summit.

The distinction between the developed and the developing countries seemed to fade away as there was marked difference in the particularity of America. China Brazil and India drew as much attention.While the G20 meet did end in global settlement to boost the world growth there have been some misses. Here are some of the highlights from the Summit.

Hits

• US president Barack Obama called the Meeting Historic in its pursuit to recover from the financial quagmire.
• IMF's managing director was happy after the summit and especially enthusiastic about IMF issuing $250bn worth of its own currency, the SDR. Top jobs in the IMF will be open to people from all parts of the world which until now had only Europeans on them.
• Countries like China and India have been given bigger say in the working of this international institution.
• Leaders called the summit a "real progress" in efforts to enforce tighter regulation of the financial system.
• G20 meet succeeded in inciting cooperation on crackdown on tax havens as also greater support for the poorest countries.

Misses

• The Summit's biggest failure is being seen in its inability to settle on a global plan for recovery from the crisis.
• There have been no major deals on plans of co-ordinated global stimulus packages.
• A representative from the World Development Movement said one of the biggest misses of the summit is that leaders failed to get a consensus on a global green new deal that puts the interests of poor people and the environment as an important part of the international trade and finance.

On the whole the summit is being as mixed bag of goodies. The summit is being widely considered to have taken only insufficient measures to meet the challenges facing the global economy even while a clearer financial structure is expected to emerge out of the chaos.

It remains to seen when and how the pledges at the Summit get transformed into real worth.
The G20 Summit is best being regarded as embarking of the journey of a new beginning.

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Japan's exports halved in January

Japan's exports halved in January.Japan's current account recorded its largest deficit on record in January, reaching 172.8bn yen ($1.8bn). This is Japan's first deficit in 13 years.In forex trading yen has weakened further.

Corporate blow:
Car exports alone dropped 66.1%, with semiconductor and electronic parts exports down 52.8%.
Consumers around the world no longer want to buy Japanese cars. Consumers in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the United States are not buying pricey Japanese goods such as cars and electronic goods.

Honda has had to cut production, and Sony is set to register its first annual loss in 14 years.
Shares tumbled on the news, with the benchmark Japanese index, the Nikkei, closing down at a 26-year low.

Dismal Economy:
"We incurred the current account deficit due to a plunge in exports. Our exports to key regions, including the United States, Europe and Asia, were all down sharply due to the deteriorating global economy," a finance ministry official said.
"Japan's export-driven economy is really engulfed by waves of the global economic crisis. “An economist pointed out.


Japan has already passed the legislation to hand out cash to its people as an economic stimulus.

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Japan to Hand Out Cash to People

Japan's parliament has passed legislation to give a cash hand-out to every resident in an attempt to boost the recession-hit economy. People will get at least 12,000 yen ($121) under the $20bn plan. In forex trading Yen has been growing weaker.

There are fears however that most Japanese people, who have a strong tradition of saving, will hang on to the cash instead of spending it. The cash hand-out is the centerpiece of a stimulus package to revive Japan's economy. Japan is in a far sharper recession than the US or Europe.

Japan's GDP had dropped 3.3% in the final quarter of 2008, a much steeper decline than in the US, which saw a 1.6% drop. UK’s economy had contracted by 1.5%.

Critics of the plan say it is a ploy to boost the popularity of Prime Minister Taro Aso and this will only expand Japan's already bulging budget deficit.The legislation enacting the stimulus plan has been mired in Japan's parliament for weeks. In a political battle sort of, the bill was passed after the government-controlled lower house overruled a no vote in the upper house, which is dominated by the opposition.

Japan has been one of the first countries in Asia to be hit by the global meltdown and lead the recession into the continent.

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U.S. to Raise Stake in Citigroup

The U.S. Treasury Department reached a deal late Thursday to take a stake of 30 to 40 percent in Citigroup as part of a third bailout of the embattled bank, according to several people close to the deal. Vikram S. Pandit, the chief executive, will remain at the helm, but Citigroup will have to shake up its board so that it has a majority of independent directors, a move that federal regulators had already been pursuing.

The Obama administration will probably come under intense pressure to take a much larger role in shaping the bank’s direction. Taxpayers, after pumping more than $45 billion into the bank, have become Citigroup’s single largest shareholder. The government will not put in any additional money for now, but some analysts believe Citigroup may require more down the road.

The move is one of the most drastic steps federal officials have taken to prevent the collapse of an institution deemed “too big too fail,” as its downfall could send shockwaves through the global forex trading and financial markets. The government also took a major ownership stake in the American International Group, AIG, which is already seeking additional funds, and seized control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in September. So far, none of those deals have turned out well.

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Downturn Creeping Into Asia

Japan’s exports fell by 46 percent in January, and Hong Kong’s economy contracted 2.5 percent in the last three months of 2008, furthering signs that the economic downturn in Asia is set to drag on through this year.

Japan leads recession in Asia:
The Japanese economy was one of the first in Asia to tip into recession since last three months of 2008 as weakness stemming from poor domestic demand was mixed with evaporating demand from overseas. Exports plunged 46 percent from a year earlier and imports dropped 32 percent. Similar sharp declines have been reported recently by China and Taiwan also.

Worsening Yen:
Japan’s export decline was significant from a grim December 2008, when exports fell 35 percent. The yen — whose strength against the dollar has made Japanese goods more expensive for American consumers — has weakened during the last three weeks, trading at around 97 to the dollar on Wednesday, compared with about 89 in early February.
Exporters have continually cited the yen as a main reason for sharply reduced sales that are expected to lead to deep losses this year.


Rest of the Continent:
In Hong Kong, the government said on Wednesday that it expected the economy to shrink 2 to 3 percent in 2009. Elsewhere in the region, South Korea said it would start a $13.2 billion fund to bolster its commercial banks .India had Malaysia have already recorded the slowest growth in at least last seven years.
Much of Asia’s growth in recent years was based on an export boom, allowing the recession in the United States and Europe to spread through a region that had been insulated from the American financial troubles that ignited the current downturn.

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Dollar Gains as Obama expresses Optimism

The dollar strengthened against the euro after President Barack Obama expressed optimism that the U.S. will emerge from its recession “stronger than before.”

The greenback gained for a third day versus the yen as well in forex trading as Obama said the world’s largest economy “will recover” and the tools to revive growth were within reach. Japan’s currency fell for a sixth day against the euro, the longest stretch since April, after the Ministry of Finance said the trade deficit widened in January to the most since at least 1986. The dollar rose to $1.2816 per euro as of 1:40 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.2846 late yesterday in New York. The greenback climbed to 97.10 yen from 96.64 yen.

“The markets like the fact that Obama’s trying to tighten things up and striking an optimistic tone…that would be supportive of the dollar.”Obama, delivering his first address to a joint session of Congress, also said the credit crisis paralyzing the banking system must be fixed or “our recovery will be choked off before it even begins.”

”AIG is already seeking additional funds from the Government before its report due on nest Monday.

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Euro witnesses Gain, USD plummets against Canadian Dollar

Euro sees rise:

The euro rose from near a three- month low against the dollar since yesterday on speculation German Chancellor Angela Merkel will signal Europe’s largest economy plans to take action to help avert the financial turmoil in the region. Optimism about the stabilization of the European financial system is being seen as helpful to halt the recent steep decline of the euro.

The euro climbed to $1.2589 as of 12:57 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.2530 late in New York yesterday, when it touched $1.2513, the lowest level since Nov. 21.

Europe’s single currency advanced to 117.94 yen from 117.50 yen. The dollar traded at 93.69 yen from 93.79 yen yesterday, when it reached 93.96, the highest level since Jan. 7. The Bank of Japan may today unveil details of a plan to buy corporate debt and extend lending programs in place to prevent a shortage of credit from deepening the nation’s recession, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Bank Results can affect Euro adversely:

Gains in the euro may be tempered by concern European companies will report steeper-than-expected losses stemming from the global financial turmoil.

USD near Peak Versus Canada’s Currency:

Demand for the dollar was tempered by speculation the U.S.’s largest automakers will fail unless they get increased government aid. General Motors Corp. and Chrysler have a 70 percent likelihood of filing for bankruptcy.They are seeking as much as $21.6 billion in additional federal assistance.The Canadian dollar is being seen as emerging with a cyclical growth profile that is as good as or better than that of the U.S. dollar.

U.S. Data:

The Labor Department’s report on producer prices, scheduled for today, may show wholesale prices fell 2.5 percent last month from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg survey, signaling the world’s largest economy may be heading for a period of sustained deflation. Federal Reserve policy makers lowered their projections for economic growth this year, with most seeing a contraction of 0.5 percent to 1.3 percent, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Jan. 27-28 released yesterday.

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FOREX-Daily Market Digest

Yen sees gain:
The yen gained in currency trading for a third day against the euro on speculation European banks will reveal increasing losses due to the financial crisis in the region.

Yen strengthened versus 13 of the 16 most-active currencies on concern stock declines will spur investors to sell higher-yielding assets they bought with funds from Japan. The euro traded near a 10-week low against the dollar. The Risk-averse sentiment is being seen as likely to persist. “The yen may be bought.” Traders noted demand for the yen increased after Asian equities fell. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 1.4 percent and the MSCI Asia- Pacific Index of regional shares weakened 1 percent, prompting investors to reduce holdings of higher-yielding assets.

AUD weakens:
Australia’s currency may slide to as low as 50 U.S. cents as the global recession can drive down commodity prices. The central bank may lower borrowing costs to a record. The global economic collapse, the weakness of commodity prices, the prospect of Australian interest rates going to 2 percent or less and a severe domestic recession suggest the Australian dollar could weaken sharply, accordingly to analysts.

BSE and NSE move upwards:
Indian shares turned positive after opening 1.1 percent lower on Wednesday as investors hunted for bargains in the battered market that had fallen 6.2 percent in the previous two days. Technically, the market had become oversold-so now it is rebounding, remarked an analyst here in Mumbai. By 10:05 a.m. (0435 GMT), the 30-share BSE index was up 0.38 percent at 9,069.26 points, with 21 components rising. The 50-share NSE index was up 0.47 percent at 2,783.60.

Current recession one of the worse:
Alan Greenspan, the former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman on Tuesday said the current global recession will be the longest and deepest since the 1930s and more government rescue funds will be needed to stabilize the U.S. financial system. In a speech to the Economic Club of New York Greenspan said The U.S. Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) designed to help bail out banks has been partially successful and that additional funds will be required to stabilize the American banking system and restore normal lending.

News compiled from the Reuters and Bloomberg.

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